Prediction Markets
2025–2026
Deep analysis of 9 leading platforms: trading volumes, sports markets, technical specs, APIs, and comparison tables.
Top 10 Events by Category
Real-time market data aggregated from all prediction markets. Click any event to see detailed platform comparison.
Will Trump win 2024 election?
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?
Will Harris win 2024 election?
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US presidential election?
Will UK hold election in 2024?
Will the United Kingdom hold a general election in 2024?
Will EU expand in 2025?
Will the European Union accept a new member state in 2025?
Will Russia-Ukraine peace deal happen in 2025?
Will a peace agreement be signed between Russia and Ukraine in 2025?
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Will China militarily invade Taiwan in 2025?
Will Iran attack Israel in 2025?
Will Iran launch a military attack on Israel in 2025?
Will NATO expand in 2025?
Will NATO accept a new member country in 2025?
Will US withdraw from NATO in 2025?
Will the United States withdraw from NATO in 2025?
Will UN Security Council reform in 2025?
Will the UN Security Council be reformed in 2025?
💡 Compare prices across platforms to find arbitrage opportunities. Events with higher liquidity tend to have more accurate pricing.
Prediction Markets Industry
Prediction markets grew from $9B in 2024 to $44B+ in 2025 — 400% growth. Kalshi and Polymarket control 97.5% of volume. Industry moving toward $1T annual volume.
Platform Types
Volume Distribution
Key Trends 2025–2026
Volume by Platform (Billions USD)
Market Share
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- Rain Protocol
- Novig
- Gnosis Omen
- Opinion Labs
- Limitless
- Sport.fun
- SX Bet
Platform Comparison
| Platform | Volume | Type | Blockchain | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $11B | regulated | Centralized (no blockchain) | 47.6% |
| Polymarket | $9B | defi | Polygon (MATIC) | 39.0% |
| Rain Protocol | $1.95B | defi | Arbitrum One | 8.4% |
| Novig | $0.5B | sports | Centralized | 2.2% |
| Gnosis Omen | $0.15B | defi | Gnosis Chain (formerly xDai) | 0.6% |
| Opinion Labs | $0.25B | defi | Base (Coinbase L2) | 1.1% |
| Limitless | $0.12B | defi | Arbitrum One | 0.5% |
| Sport.fun | $0.08B | sports | Base (Coinbase L2) | 0.3% |
| SX Bet | $0.035B | sports | SX Network (proprietary L2, Chain ID: 4162) | 0.2% |
Platform Analysis
Detailed comparison of all 9 prediction markets
Kalshi
First US event contract exchange licensed by CFTC. Trade on real-world events - politics, economics, sports, weather. 2025 trading volume reached $238 billion.
Polymarket
World's largest decentralized prediction market. Operates on Polygon blockchain with USDC. 2025 trading volume was $220 billion. Launched Polymarket US (beta) for American users at end of 2025.
Rain Protocol
Decentralized infrastructure protocol for creating prediction markets. Positioned as 'Uniswap for prediction markets' - SDK, API, and smart contracts for developers. Public beta launched November 2025.
Novig
Specialized sports betting platform operating as exchange (peer-to-peer). Focus on American sports. Positioned as alternative to traditional bookmakers with better odds.
Gnosis Omen
Pioneer of decentralized prediction markets. Omen is flagship app on Gnosis Chain. Uses Conditional Token Framework (CTF) - ERC-1155 standard for outcome tokenization. Reality.eth oracle for resolution.
Opinion Labs
New prediction market platform on Base (Coinbase's L2). Focus on real-world events and crypto markets. Backed by Coinbase Ventures. Fast, low-cost transactions.
Limitless
Emerging prediction market platform on Arbitrum. Focus on high-frequency trading and sophisticated market mechanics. Supports advanced order types and derivatives.
Sport.fun
Decentralized sports betting exchange on Base. 'Be your own bookmaker' - peer-to-peer bet matching. Launched Q4 2025. Focus on soccer and esports.
SX Bet
Decentralized sports betting exchange. 'Be your own bookmaker' - peer-to-peer bet matching. Proprietary SX Network (L2 based on Polygon). USDC and WSX as settlement tokens.
Найдите подходящую платформу
Используйте фильтры ниже для поиска платформ по типу, требованиям и возможностям.
Kalshi
$11BPolymarket
$9BRain Protocol
$1.95BNovig
$500MGnosis Omen
$150MOpinion Labs
$250MLimitless
$120MSport.fun
$80MSX Bet
$35MLive Markets
Real-time top markets from Polymarket. Updated every 30 seconds.
| Market | 24h Volume | YES Price | NO Price | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Trump win 2024 election? | $125.0M | 58¢ | 42¢ | $45.0M |
Will Bitcoin reach $100k by end of 2025? | $89.0M | 72¢ | 28¢ | $32.0M |
Will Fed cut rates in next meeting? | $67.0M | 35¢ | 65¢ | $28.0M |
Will S&P 500 close above 5500 by Q1 2025? | $54.0M | 61¢ | 39¢ | $22.0M |
Will Ethereum reach $4000 by March 2025? | $48.0M | 44¢ | 56¢ | $19.0M |
💡 Note: Live data from Polymarket API. Prices update every 30 seconds. This is real-time market data for educational purposes.
Fee Calculator
Calculate exact fees and net profit for your bet across all platforms.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: Fee calculations are estimates based on average platform fees. Actual fees may vary based on market conditions, bet size, and resolution method. Always check platform documentation for exact fees.
Sports Markets Analysis
Comprehensive sports betting coverage across all platforms
Sport Coverage by Platform
- Platforms
- Volume %
Market Maturity by Sport
Sports-Focused Platforms
Kalshi
Largest US sports betting
Polymarket
Global sports markets
Limitless
High-speed sports exchange
SX Bet
Peer-to-peer sports betting
Novig
Exchange model sports
Key Insights
- • NFL dominates sports betting volume across all platforms
- • Kalshi sports revenue: $263.5M in 2025 (highest)
- • Super Bowl 60 generated $1.63B volume on Kalshi
- • Live betting available on most platforms
- • Peer-to-peer model (SX Bet, Novig) eliminates house edge
Platform Fee Comparison
Fees range from 0.10% to 4%+ depending on the model. More than 1000x difference between the cheapest and most expensive platform in the industry.
Average Fee (% of trade)
Fee Models
0.07 × contracts × price × (1-price). Maximum at 50/50, minimum at extremes. Most complex model.
$35 on $1000 at 50/500.10% of trade volume. Simplest and cheapest model for large positions.
$1 on $1000Fee increases as resolution approaches. Rewards early participants.
0.03% → 3% at resolutionFee only from winner: 4% of profit (2.6% oracle + 1.4% affiliate).
$4 from $100 profit2% AMM fee, distributed among liquidity providers.
$20 on $1000Real costs at $10,000 position (contract price $0.76)
| Platform | Fee | Fee Type | Cost per $1 Win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket US | $9.99 | 0.10% taker | $0.7608 | Best |
| Opinion Labs | $49.75 | Dynamic | $0.7639 | Excellent |
| Limitless | $147.78 | Dynamic | $0.7716 | Good |
| Kalshi | $165.24 | Formula | $0.7728 | Fair |
| SX Bet | ~$160 | 4% of profit | ~$0.77 | Fair |
| Gnosis Omen | $200 | 2% AMM | $0.78 | Fair |
Technical Specifications
Comparison of blockchain networks, deposit methods, tokens, and technical architecture of each platform.
Centralized
No blockchain. Traditional financial infrastructure. High speed, full control.
Polygon
L2 Ethereum. Low fees ($0.01-$0.50), high speed. EVM-compatible.
Arbitrum One
Optimistic Rollup L2. Very low gas fees, EVM-compatible.
Gnosis Chain
Ethereum sidechain (xDAI). Minimal fees <$0.01. Specialized for prediction markets.
Ethereum + BNB Chain
Dual-chain: Ethereum mainnet + BNB Chain. Wide audience, high liquidity.
Base
Coinbase L2 (OP Stack). Low fees, Coinbase ecosystem integration.
SX Network
Proprietary L2 (Chain ID: 4162). Optimized for sports betting. USDC + WSX tokens.
Complete Technical Comparison
| Platform | Blockchain | Token | Deposit | Min Deposit | KYC | Market Creation | WebSocket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | Centralized (no blockchain) | — | USD (crypto converts to USD via ZeroHash) | $1 | Required | No | Yes |
Polymarket | Polygon (MATIC) | — | USDC (Polygon network) | ~$1 (minimum gas) | Not required | Yes | Yes |
Rain Protocol | Arbitrum One | RAIN | ETH/USDC on Arbitrum | Minimum gas (~$0.01 on Arbitrum) | Not required | Yes | No |
Novig | Centralized | — | USD | ~$10 | Required | No | No |
Gnosis Omen | Gnosis Chain (formerly xDai) | GNO | xDAI/USDC on Gnosis Chain | $1 (minimal gas) | Not required | Yes | No |
Opinion Labs | Base (Coinbase L2) | OPINION | ETH/USDC on Base | $1 | Not required | Yes | Yes |
Limitless | Arbitrum One | LIMIT | ETH/USDC on Arbitrum | $10 | Not required | Yes | Yes |
Sport.fun | Base (Coinbase L2) | FUN | ETH/USDC on Base | Minimum gas | Not required | No | Yes |
SX Bet | SX Network (proprietary L2, Chain ID: 4162) | WSX | USDC/WSX on SX Network | $5 USDC | Not required | No | Yes |
APIs & Integrations
Most platforms provide REST APIs and WebSocket for algorithmic trading, data retrieval, and market creation.
Platform API Comparison
| Platform | API Type | Endpoint | Auth | WebSocket | Features |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | REST + WS | trading-api.kalshi.com | API Key | Yes | Full CRUD, markets/orders/positions |
Polymarket | REST + WS (CLOB) | clob.polymarket.com | Wallet sig | Yes | CLOB, no KYC, USDC |
Rain Protocol | REST + SDK | api.rain.one | Wallet | No | SDK for developers, AI oracle |
Gnosis Omen | GraphQL (The Graph) | api.thegraph.com/gnosis/omen | None | No | Open smart contracts, CTF |
Opinion Labs | REST + WS | api.opinion.trade | Wallet | Yes | Opinion Stack, AI oracle |
Limitless | REST + WS (CLOB) | api.limitless.exchange | Wallet | Yes | CLOB on Base, limit orders |
SX Bet | REST + WS | api.sx.bet | EIP-712 sig | Yes | Market making, parlays, capital efficiency |
// Kalshi REST API — get active markets
const response = await fetch(
'https://trading-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets',
{
headers: {
'Authorization': 'Bearer YOUR_API_KEY',
'Content-Type': 'application/json'
}
}
);
const data = await response.json();
// data.markets — array of marketsKey Events 2025–2026
Major industry events: regulatory changes, volume records, token launches, and technical updates.
Prediction Markets reached $44B+ volume in 2025
Industry grew 400% vs 2024. Kalshi and Polymarket control 97.5% of market. Analysts forecast $1T annual volume by 2027.
Super Bowl 60: $1.63B volume on Kalshi
Super Bowl 60 became the largest event in prediction markets history. Kalshi processed $1.63B in bets on a single game. Exceeded entire 2022 market volume.
Polymarket US launches beta for American users
After $45M CFTC fine in 2024, Polymarket gained US operating approval. Beta available in all 50 states with KYC verification.
Rain Protocol: RAIN token listing on KuCoin
RAIN token listed on KuCoin with $4.8M trading volume on day one. Protocol positioned as Uniswap of prediction markets with AI oracle.
Sport.fun launches FUN token via Kraken Launch
On-chain fantasy sports platform Sport.fun conducted pledge-based TGE via Kraken Launch. FUN token up 10% in early trading days.
Limitless Exchange: $10M Seed from Coinbase Ventures
Largest prediction market on Base raised $10M from Coinbase Ventures, DCG, and 1confirmation. LMTS token launched simultaneously.
Kalshi: $263.5M fee revenue for 2025
Kalshi became first CFTC-licensed exchange earning over $250M annually. Sports markets are main growth driver. Total trading volume $238B.
SX Bet: Capital Efficiency upgrade with MXL algorithm
SX Bet implemented new MXL algorithm for market maker position hedging. Enables market makers to manage risks more efficiently on peer-to-peer exchange.
Platform Event Timeline
Complete Platform Comparison
All key parameters of 9 platforms in one table for quick comparison.
| Platform | Volume | Type | Network | Fees | KYC | Creation | Sports | API | Token | Restrictions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi @Kalshi | $11B | Regulated | Centralized (no bloc... | 0.07 × contracts × price ... | Yes | No | Yes | REST+WS | — | US residents only. Restriction... |
Polymarket @Polymarket | $9B | DeFi | Polygon (MATIC) | 0% trading fees (global v... | No | Yes | Yes | REST+WS | — | Global version: unavailable fo... |
Rain Protocol @Rain__Protocol | $1.95B | DeFi | Arbitrum One | Configurable (depends on ... | No | Yes | No | REST | RAIN | No geographic restrictions at ... |
Novig @Novig | $500M | Sports | Centralized | No bookmaker margin. Comm... | Yes | No | Yes | No | — | No geographic restrictions. |
Gnosis Omen @gnosispm | $150M | DeFi | Gnosis Chain (former... | 2% AMM fee | No | Yes | No | REST | GNO | No geographic restrictions. |
Opinion Labs @OpinionLabs | $250M | DeFi | Base (Coinbase L2) | 0.5% dynamic average | No | Yes | Yes | REST+WS | OPINION | No geographic restrictions. |
Limitless @LimitlessMarkets | $120M | DeFi | Arbitrum One | 1.5% dynamic average | No | Yes | No | REST+WS | LIMIT | No geographic restrictions. |
Sport.fun @SportFun | $80M | Sports | Base (Coinbase L2) | Oracle: 1.5% of profit. A... | No | No | Yes | REST+WS | FUN | No geographic restrictions. |
SX Bet @SX_Bet | $35M | Sports | SX Network (propriet... | Oracle: 2.6% of profit. A... | No | No | Yes | REST+WS | WSX | No geographic restrictions. |
CFTC-licensed, wide market selection (politics, sports, economics), available in 50 states, REST+WS API.
Largest DeFi volume, no KYC (global version), USDC on Polygon, CLOB API, wide market selection.
Exchange model without vig, best odds on market, focus on American sports, peer-to-peer matching.
SDK, permissionless market creation, AI oracle, Arbitrum (low gas fees), open infrastructure.
Peer-to-peer exchange, API for algo market making, Capital Efficiency upgrade, no KYC, wide sports coverage.
Direct bets on Fed/CPI/elections, 0% for makers, AI oracle, multi-chain (ETH + BNB).
Final Verdict
Market State 2025–2026
Prediction markets experiencing explosive growth. Kalshi and Polymarket dominate with 97.5% volume, but DeFi platforms (Rain, Limitless, Opinion Labs) growing rapidly. Sports became largest segment — Super Bowl 60 generated $1.63B for single game.
Forecast 2026–2027
Analysts forecast $1T annual volume by 2027. Key trends: regulatory expansion in US, AI oracles, multi-chain integration, sports market growth. Competition between regulated (Kalshi) and DeFi (Polymarket) platforms will intensify.